Dear Hillary – Shut up, drop out and go home.

Posted: May 18, 2008 in News, Politics

   I’ve about had it with Hillary at this point. The woman is starting to come off to me as someone who knows she’s going down in flames and has decided that everybody is going down with her.

   Two plus months ago it was pretty obvious that, barring Obama getting hit by a bus while crossing the street, Hillary was not winning her party’s nomination. Still, she pressed on and it seemed like she was trying to ensure herself a nod as the next Democratic nominee for 2012 if Obama failed to grab the brass ring this go round. It sorta made sense. If she could show how strong she was this go round and convince people that she was the more electable of the two than she might be a lock for a 2012 run.

   Now we’re in May and the only thing that Hillary seems to be doing is self-destructing and trying to take her party with her. Hillary cannot win. At this point, neither she nor Obama will gain the number of votes needed to be the magic number (51%) winner, but Obama has a clear lead in the votes and more of the popular support. The only way that Hillary can win her party’s nomination at the convention is by some unforeseen and catastrophic event taking out Obama or by a backroom deal.

   In the case of a catastrophic event, Hillary doesn’t need to go any farther than she already has. If anything were to knock Obama out of this race by the convention, Hillary is the natural runner up. If that’s what she’s looking for she has already achieved it. She looks like the best candidate for a 2012 run if Obama fails in 2008 and she’s the natural choice if anything causes Obama to be removed from the race before the convention. Jobs done. Pack it in and go home.

   The backroom deal option is more problematic. For one thing, it just ain’t gonna happen. There’s no way in hell that the Democrats will allow themselves to self destruct to that level and Hillary has to know this. While they might have stabbed John Edwards in the back for Hillary; The Democratic Party will not cut the knees out from under the first popularly elected black Democratic Presidential nominee for Hillary.

Not

Gonna

Happen.

   There have been a number of *moderate* black voices in the Democratic party and in their more friendly members of the press that have made it clear that an action such as this would fracture the party insofar as the black vote and the support of moderate black politicians. They’ve been told point blank by the more radical members of the left that there would be an all out revolt in some quarters.

   And it’s not merely the black vote that will see this division or this all out abandonment of the Democratic party. A number of white voters have said in various interviews that they would have problems with the party if it backroom dealed Hillary in over Obama when the votes clearly show him as the rightful nominee.

   The leadership in the party will not allow this to happen. Hillary has to know this. She and Bill are very politically astute and they know how to read the political winds better then most. So what have we got left to guess at Hillary’s motivations?

   Hillary is in her last run and has nothing to lose. She some pundits have stated that Hillary would still be “young enough” for a go in 2012 or even 2016. But is that how she’s looking at it and would a 2012 run be in the cards after this fiasco?

   Hillary would have to be banking her hopes for a 2012 run on Obama not getting elected or blowing it so badly that he could actually be challenged for the 2012 nod by someone in his own party. And either way, she may have gone past the point of no return in her campaign this year to do that. Hillary is losing support in a number of quarters and burning a few bridges with this extended campaign or hers. It would be one thing if it were close and she had a shot at winning, but there’s no way she’s winning and it now looks like she’s putting her ambitions over the good of the party.

   A 2016 run would only work, setting aside some of the bridge burning, if Obama’s VP was very unpopular or chose not to run. It would also mean eight more years as “just” a politician and maybe less than that if she’s alienated enough people. And again, that’s the slim chance option.

   I don’t see those as two very strong possibilities. I honestly think that Hillary is now living down to her worst detractors’ stereotypes of her and she’s out for her own power grab while everyone else can be damned. She’s willing to damage Obama before he even gets into the main race and she’s pushing the idea of having the party overturn Obama’s lead at the convention to crown her the winner. And like I said above; that’s not going to happen

   The Democratic party has long held two very powerful things over the republicans. They’ve long held a substantial majority of the black vote and they’ve long been the “champions of the oppressed” when it came time to play the race card for political leverage. They’re not going to throw either of those two things away for Hillary.

   They’re not going to alienate the black voter block by stabbing Obama in the back for Hillary; especially after years of droning on about how it’s the Republicans who always want to oppress blacks, disenfranchise their votes, and hold them down from positions of power. There is no way in hell that the Democrats are going to publicly and blatantly screw over Obama at the convention and risk losing that powerful of a voting block for the next ten, fifteen or twenty years.

   They’re also not going to risk losing one of their favorite political tools in the race card. There’s no way that the Democrats could get away with screwing over the first popularly elected black presidential nominee and then be able to turn around and wield that card with anything close to the strength that it’s had for years now. Losing these two things is just too great a cost to the party for the relatively meager rewards that a Clinton presidency (based on what happened in the last one) would pay out. They’re just not going to do it.

   Hillary has to know this. Bill has to know this. Both of them have played the game long enough to know the rules and to know the score. Hell, even if they’re too blind at this point to see it, Terry Mcauliffe and a host of other advisers should be pointing it out to them every day now. So where do we go from here?

   Hillary may well be in the last throws of, as she sees it, her chance at the brass ring. She may have it in her mind that she’s got just this one chance and that’s it. As a result of that, she’s seemingly decided to live down to the worst caricature of her political self and put her power and ambition above all else. She’s headed down a path that can only end in her going down in flames, but she’s damned and determined to take everybody else with her if she goes down. She’s going to try and take Obama down and damage him so badly in her attempt to usurp his place as the nominee that he goes into the real race injured, bloody and maybe exposed and vulnerable depending on what dirty tricks the Clinton Machine pulls out of its bag in the next few weeks. If the unbelievable happens and she strong-arms the party into stabbing Obama in the back for her and giving her the nod; there’s no way she gets elected. The divisions that would create in the party, if not the all out civil war, would damage the party going into November and likely keep everyone but the most die-hard Hillary supporters or the most die-hard Republican haters at home.

   Either way, she takes the party down in flames with her last grasp at the brass ring if she continues on this apparent path. Either way, she lives down to her critics worst declarations of her being a crass, power mad, callous bitch who’s looking out for number one and everybody else can go screw themselves. If Hillary ever wants a real shot at the presidency again, she needs to wake up, look at what she’s doing and back out of this course of action before it’s too late for her to do so (if it’s not already) and work damned hard at getting back in the good graces of a number of people in her party by supporting the rightful nominee. She needs to shut up, drop out, and go home now.

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Comments
  1. Micha says:

    What about Michigan and Florida? Maybe she thinks that if she can get them to have a re-vote the balance will change?

  2. jjchandler says:

    They could both be problems themselves if just handed over to Hillary. Michigan was told that they were violating the rules and both Obama and Edwards did not place their names on the Michigan ballot.

    http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=17958423

    The obvious result of that is that Hillary “won” an election where the other two strongest candidates were not running. To be fair, Michigan would have to do a new vote with Obama and Hillary and that ain’t happening.

    Florida is a bit of a question mark since the circumstances around the early vote were a bit messier than in Michigan, but it’s still a problem in the end for the Democratic party. They had a very high voter turnout, but it was already in the news that their vote would not be counted. Did Obama supporters stay home? Could Hillary have won even bigger because her supporters might have stayed home last time? If everyone voted that day knowing their vote would count, would it have changed the outcome? We don’t know any of that and, again, the only fair thing to do is have a new vote and, again, that ain’t happening.

    Besides, even if we had the votes tomorrow with just Obama and Hillary, would the results be the same? If you have only two names on the ballot and you’re dealing with the issue of voters watching the race be run from then until now… Odds are that Obama would likely get the win in each state.

    One option being floated is splitting the votes in half and giving each candidate half, but that does nothing to really change the situation. Another option was to punish the states by only giving them a 50% representation. But do that and you still have 50% of a vote where Obama and Edwards weren’t on the ballot and where the voters were being told that their vote would ultimately go uncounted.

    Just give Hillary the two states as is and you run the risk, especially with the Michigan situation, of looking like you’re breaking your own rules to put Hillary over the more popular front runner. Do that and you’ve got almost as bad a PR issue as the backroom deal would create. Not gonna happen.

    Hillary is in a lose/lose position here. She cannot win and if she wants to be remembered as anything other than a power mad witch she needs to back off and do what’s right for her party. If she would use her brains, she would see that doing that would work wonders for her. I hated Mitt and found him to be as phoney as a four dollar bill, but the way he dropped out of the race he knew he was going to get creamed in was a master stroke.

    Sure, it was all about saving his ego and not getting publically embarrassed by having his ass handed to him by the guy that everyone wrote off as dead in the water months earlier, but he played it fantastically and framed it as doing the right thing for the good of his party. Total BS, but the conservative base and the conservative pundits ate it up. It’s almost a 100% guarantee that, if McCain bombs this November, Mitt is the nominee in 2012. Hillary should have paid attention to that. Even if Obama fails this November, she’s burned the roads and bridges behind her. It’s not a lock for her in 2012 and the game she’s played may have made sure that she’s not going to be allowed to be a true power player in her party after this fall no matter who wins the election.

  3. Bill Myers says:

    I doubt that Hillary is consciously trying to torpedo Barack’s chances. Don’t underestimated the ability of people to rationalize their actions. I think Hillary has convinced herself she has a chance to win.

    She doesn’t, of course. The math doesn’t support it. She’d have to win roughly 7 of every 10 of the remaining delegates unless Michigan and Florida are counted. And as you’ve already pointed out, the votes in Michigan and Florida weren’t exactly fair contests.

    Up until the last couple of weeks, however, I think Hillary’s continued assaults on Obama were actually a *good* thing. Better that stuff like Rev. Wright’s remarks, “bittergate,” and the other kerfluffles happened during the primary than, say, in October. Obama should now be more ready for McCain’s assaults.

    But two or three weeks ago, we passed the point of diminishing returns. Ms. Clinton is only damaging Obama and providing the Republicans with a “playbook” for beating Obama.

    I still think the presidency is the Democrats’ to lose. The last few weeks have been the best McCain will see during the campaign, with his absurd gaffes lost in the din of the Democratic primary fight, yet his polling numbers are still mediocre. If this is the best he can do now, he should be in for a shellacking when his views on Iraq, the economy, and other issues are exposed in the light of day. But to take advantage of this, Obama needs Clinton to get off his back.

    In a way, I feel sorry for Ms. Clinton. She was considered the presumptive nominee at one time, and it must hurt to see a lifelong ambition scuttled in such an unexpected way. But it’s time for her to get a reality check.

    I used to be one of the people who defended her. I thought the “power-mad bitch” thing was a caricature, more a reflection of others’ biases than of Clinton’s true self. Now? Well, I’m not sure anymore. She doesn’t look good right now.

  4. jjchandler says:

    That’s more or less where I’m at right now. Hillary started hitting that mark of no return with me about six weeks back. Where I defended her before, she is now, as I said, living down to the worst things said about her.

    You may be right that she’s not doing it consciously and trying to rationalize her actions, but there must be someone (Bill, Terry, Etc.) telling her that it’s getting worse by the minute. If she won’t or can’t listen then it’s her own fault for flushing what may have been a pretty good political career/legacy down the drain.

  5. Bill Myers says:

    Oh, I agree that whether she’s fooling herself into thinking she can win or doing something more Machiavellian, she’s responsible for her poor actions either way.

    I’m watching CNN right now, and some chisel-jawed reporter is explaining that even if Michigan’s and Florida’s delegates are seated in the proportions in which Clinton would like she *still* needs 60 percent of the remaining delegates to win. And you know damn well it’s not bloody likely Michigan and Florida will be counted the way Hillary wants.

    I have now joined the ranks of those who revile the Clintons.

  6. jjchandler says:

    I just heard her speech and I wanted to wretch several times. She’s portraying her second place status as having more votes than anybody else ever had and she’s making it 100% crystal clear that she’s not stopping until the convention’s doors are shut and the lights are turned out.

    And the thing of it is that I usually get really excited about politics when it’s a hard and heavy race. My own blog’s posts and a number of them on PAD’s blog should give even people who have never met or spoken with me some idea of how I look at stuff like this as almost a popcorn and soda sports event. But this? I’m tired of it. This got stupid on so many levels so fast that it’s almost painful to watch. This is like watching the bad amateur band stay on way too long at the concert while the headlining act is getting too stoned to play well anyhow.

    And the dogs ate my popcorn.

  7. Bill Myers says:

    Hillary’s latest move — vowing to help Florida and Michigan fight an unfavorable ruling from the DNC’s rules committe and her incendiary remarks around that — have my jaw on the floor today. The Hillary-haters were right and I was wrong. She is bereft of principle, of perspective, of any kind of common sense or decency. She can’t win this fight, but she sure as hell can take the party down with her.

    This sucks. It really does.

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