Archive for May 18, 2008

   I’ve about had it with Hillary at this point. The woman is starting to come off to me as someone who knows she’s going down in flames and has decided that everybody is going down with her.

   Two plus months ago it was pretty obvious that, barring Obama getting hit by a bus while crossing the street, Hillary was not winning her party’s nomination. Still, she pressed on and it seemed like she was trying to ensure herself a nod as the next Democratic nominee for 2012 if Obama failed to grab the brass ring this go round. It sorta made sense. If she could show how strong she was this go round and convince people that she was the more electable of the two than she might be a lock for a 2012 run.

   Now we’re in May and the only thing that Hillary seems to be doing is self-destructing and trying to take her party with her. Hillary cannot win. At this point, neither she nor Obama will gain the number of votes needed to be the magic number (51%) winner, but Obama has a clear lead in the votes and more of the popular support. The only way that Hillary can win her party’s nomination at the convention is by some unforeseen and catastrophic event taking out Obama or by a backroom deal.

   In the case of a catastrophic event, Hillary doesn’t need to go any farther than she already has. If anything were to knock Obama out of this race by the convention, Hillary is the natural runner up. If that’s what she’s looking for she has already achieved it. She looks like the best candidate for a 2012 run if Obama fails in 2008 and she’s the natural choice if anything causes Obama to be removed from the race before the convention. Jobs done. Pack it in and go home.

   The backroom deal option is more problematic. For one thing, it just ain’t gonna happen. There’s no way in hell that the Democrats will allow themselves to self destruct to that level and Hillary has to know this. While they might have stabbed John Edwards in the back for Hillary; The Democratic Party will not cut the knees out from under the first popularly elected black Democratic Presidential nominee for Hillary.

Not

Gonna

Happen.

   There have been a number of *moderate* black voices in the Democratic party and in their more friendly members of the press that have made it clear that an action such as this would fracture the party insofar as the black vote and the support of moderate black politicians. They’ve been told point blank by the more radical members of the left that there would be an all out revolt in some quarters.

   And it’s not merely the black vote that will see this division or this all out abandonment of the Democratic party. A number of white voters have said in various interviews that they would have problems with the party if it backroom dealed Hillary in over Obama when the votes clearly show him as the rightful nominee.

   The leadership in the party will not allow this to happen. Hillary has to know this. She and Bill are very politically astute and they know how to read the political winds better then most. So what have we got left to guess at Hillary’s motivations?

   Hillary is in her last run and has nothing to lose. She some pundits have stated that Hillary would still be “young enough” for a go in 2012 or even 2016. But is that how she’s looking at it and would a 2012 run be in the cards after this fiasco?

   Hillary would have to be banking her hopes for a 2012 run on Obama not getting elected or blowing it so badly that he could actually be challenged for the 2012 nod by someone in his own party. And either way, she may have gone past the point of no return in her campaign this year to do that. Hillary is losing support in a number of quarters and burning a few bridges with this extended campaign or hers. It would be one thing if it were close and she had a shot at winning, but there’s no way she’s winning and it now looks like she’s putting her ambitions over the good of the party.

   A 2016 run would only work, setting aside some of the bridge burning, if Obama’s VP was very unpopular or chose not to run. It would also mean eight more years as “just” a politician and maybe less than that if she’s alienated enough people. And again, that’s the slim chance option.

   I don’t see those as two very strong possibilities. I honestly think that Hillary is now living down to her worst detractors’ stereotypes of her and she’s out for her own power grab while everyone else can be damned. She’s willing to damage Obama before he even gets into the main race and she’s pushing the idea of having the party overturn Obama’s lead at the convention to crown her the winner. And like I said above; that’s not going to happen

   The Democratic party has long held two very powerful things over the republicans. They’ve long held a substantial majority of the black vote and they’ve long been the “champions of the oppressed” when it came time to play the race card for political leverage. They’re not going to throw either of those two things away for Hillary.

   They’re not going to alienate the black voter block by stabbing Obama in the back for Hillary; especially after years of droning on about how it’s the Republicans who always want to oppress blacks, disenfranchise their votes, and hold them down from positions of power. There is no way in hell that the Democrats are going to publicly and blatantly screw over Obama at the convention and risk losing that powerful of a voting block for the next ten, fifteen or twenty years.

   They’re also not going to risk losing one of their favorite political tools in the race card. There’s no way that the Democrats could get away with screwing over the first popularly elected black presidential nominee and then be able to turn around and wield that card with anything close to the strength that it’s had for years now. Losing these two things is just too great a cost to the party for the relatively meager rewards that a Clinton presidency (based on what happened in the last one) would pay out. They’re just not going to do it.

   Hillary has to know this. Bill has to know this. Both of them have played the game long enough to know the rules and to know the score. Hell, even if they’re too blind at this point to see it, Terry Mcauliffe and a host of other advisers should be pointing it out to them every day now. So where do we go from here?

   Hillary may well be in the last throws of, as she sees it, her chance at the brass ring. She may have it in her mind that she’s got just this one chance and that’s it. As a result of that, she’s seemingly decided to live down to the worst caricature of her political self and put her power and ambition above all else. She’s headed down a path that can only end in her going down in flames, but she’s damned and determined to take everybody else with her if she goes down. She’s going to try and take Obama down and damage him so badly in her attempt to usurp his place as the nominee that he goes into the real race injured, bloody and maybe exposed and vulnerable depending on what dirty tricks the Clinton Machine pulls out of its bag in the next few weeks. If the unbelievable happens and she strong-arms the party into stabbing Obama in the back for her and giving her the nod; there’s no way she gets elected. The divisions that would create in the party, if not the all out civil war, would damage the party going into November and likely keep everyone but the most die-hard Hillary supporters or the most die-hard Republican haters at home.

   Either way, she takes the party down in flames with her last grasp at the brass ring if she continues on this apparent path. Either way, she lives down to her critics worst declarations of her being a crass, power mad, callous bitch who’s looking out for number one and everybody else can go screw themselves. If Hillary ever wants a real shot at the presidency again, she needs to wake up, look at what she’s doing and back out of this course of action before it’s too late for her to do so (if it’s not already) and work damned hard at getting back in the good graces of a number of people in her party by supporting the rightful nominee. She needs to shut up, drop out, and go home now.

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